Thursday 10 March 2011

What do the bookies know that we don't


I am always amazed that the bookies seem to have almost mystical powers in determining odds and who is favourite to win for example in the early days of a TV talent show. They really should get into running governments.

An example of foresight that springs to mind is the girl that won the BBC's 'Over the Rainbow' talent show. There were twenty unknown contestants, and yet Danielle Hope was the bookies favourite from the very beginning. From memory, she almost got eliminated twice in sudden death sing-offs. But despite the apparent wavering, the bookies maintained the faith in her as their favourite. She went on to win in the end and is now starring in The Lord Jaba's west end show.

Just how do bookies do it? Do they know something that we ordinary punters don't?

That leads me to the Rt hon William Hague MP the Foreign Secretary (or Tory Boy as he was formerly known). About 3 weeks ago, and before the Libya situation had fully developed, I noted that the bookies had shortened the odds (from 12/1 to 8/1) of him being the next minister to resign from the Government. At that time Vince Cable was the favourite at 7/2. Remember this was long before the recent keystone cops episode outside Benghazi. I questioned at that time what do the bookies know, what us mere members of the public don't know, which would shorten the odds. The sharing the hotel room with his special advisor was ages before and 8/1 seemed attractive odds - I really wished I had of got on then.
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Now this morning when I turn to my Turf Accounting daily I see the odds have shrunk to - wait for it - 3/1! I had tears in my muesli. I squandered the 8/1 opportunity. The bookies had seen it coming long before some Whitehall mandarin had concocted the crazy caper in Benghazi, which Hague in a moment of apparent lunacy, had signed off - like something from a script from 'The Thick Of It".

There was also a piece in the Guardian by Nicholas Watt that said there was talk within the Tory ranks that “William had lost his mojo“.

He continued: “There is this feeling that William is not firing on all cylinders, that he is on half power,” one Tory said. Many Conservatives believe Hague has never fully recovered from his embarrassment in September when he admitted having shared a hotel room with his former special adviser, Christopher Myers.“

My own thing with Hague was of his lies in relation to his connections with Lord Ashcroft. How he got away with that I just do not know. After Coulson it further shows David Cameron's extreme lack of judgment when giving people top positions.

Surely Cameron must have viewed this:

Saturday 26 February 2011

Aggregation

Saw this great animation this morning in relation to AOL's acquistion of the Huffington post news aggregation website.  Think of it also in the context of those comparison websites - you now need a comparison website to compare the comparison websites.

Wednesday 16 February 2011

The Kings Speech (but a bit too late)

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King Hamad bin Issa Al-Khalifa

Currently we are in Dubai but have to report on the recent trouble in Bahrain in recent days. Or the Kingdom of Bahrain to give it its proper title since 2002 the Emir HH Hamad bin Issa Al-Khalifa succeeded to power and made himself a King. Two people have been killed by the police in demonstrations on Monday and Tuesday of this week. King Hamad took to the TV to address the population to personally apologise for the killings. But I fear it was a Kings speech, a bit too late, especially for the two young men who were shot to death by the police - some 'crowd control'.

The origins of the troubles predate the popular uprising in Egypt and mainly relate to the demographics of the island kingdom. In particular the split of Sunni and Shia sects of Islam in Bahrain. If you think 'catholic' and 'protestant' it may help to understand the divisions - same religion but with prejudices and differing allegiances on both sides. These sectarian troubles go back over 30 years, or so, (1979 and the Iranian revolution).

The country is ruled by King Hamad bin Issa Al-Khalifa and the King appointed government is largely Sunni dominated whereas the Shia represent two thirds of the Bahraini population.

Bahrain is a small country, similar in numbers to those that reside in greater Glasgow area, and has a total population of about 1.2m. Of this 1.2m about 60% are guest migrant workers, so the local Bahraini population is about 570,000 or thereabouts - again some similarities to Glasgow, as this is roughly the same amount of people within the Glasgow City council area. I am omitting that by coincidence Glasgow also has its own sectarian issues – catholic & protestants. Point to note again that two thirds of this 570,000 are Shia which tend to have historic and religious ties with Iran - in Bahrain they have always been under represented and accordingly felt disenfranchised.

When the British gave Bahrain its independence over 40 years ago the Al-Khalifa dynasty ruled the country. There has always been the 'Shia' issue. When King Hamad came to power his government was seen to start a process to grant citizenship to migrant workers – some say providing they kicked with the correct foot (ie. were not Shia) – in order to try to re-balance the Sunni/Shia demographics. This and press freedom together with the reported 450 political prisoners is at the heart of the matter.

Bahrain is not a rich country, it has little if any oil, and relies on banking and other commercial activities. But it has a strategic importance. The US 5th fleet has a permanent base there; and just across the causeway, which joins the country to the despotic regime of Saudi Arabia, lies the eastern oilfields of Saudi.

I have a feeling this may get worse before it gets better. Let us see if Bernie Ecclestone will permit the Bahrain Grand Prix to go on amid the growing security concerns. It is planned for March 13th and this will be a tester for the regime in more ways than one.

Tuesday 8 February 2011

Bob Bird's Lies

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Tommy and Bob in happier days

I was somewhat surprised that Channel 4's  - Dispatches - Dirty deeds of the Tabloids, never touched on the former editor of the NOTW Bob Bird's lies to the judge and jury at the Tommy Sheridan perjury trial.

Bird lied under oath when he said the incriminating data, regarding the £200k payment to Tommy's 'best' man for the 'confession' tape, had all been lost, during an archiving clear out of documents. Bird elaborated in some considerable detail that the documents were sent to Mumbai in India and were lost somewhere on route.

As we now know this was simply not true - nothing was lost, and nothing was ever archived.

I had a chuckle when I read an old report from the BBC's website concerning the original Sheridan defamation trial when Bird was giving evidence. I had googled 'Bob Bird Lies'.

Sunday paper 'does not tell lies'
Bob Bird defended the allegations about Mr Sheridan. The editor of the Scottish edition of the News of the World has told the Tommy Sheridan defamation case that his paper does not tell lies. 

Well the paper might well not tell lies (hmm) but he most definitely does.
 



 

Sunday 6 February 2011

Gray Matters by Andy Gray

As you'll know I'm not that sympathetic to the Andy Gray/Richard Keys 'sexism' charge – I could be completely wrong, but I think 'dark forces' [aka the Supreme Being] could perhaps be behind what I see as a fit-up.

I was in a charity shop during the week.  Doing what men usually do - or say they are doing - I was looking at the books - honestly, I was. I see a book that catches my eye in the bargain basket with a familiar face on the front cover. Now those of you that frequent the charries will know that the price of books is astonishingly high. £1 for a well thumbed paperback if you are lucky, and £2 or more, for your posh hardback. Much too much, in my opinion.

Well I'm sure you will be happy for me, as the book in question was Andy Gray's autobiography "Gray Matters" - a pristine hardback copy. The 'powers at be' at Age Concern, not usually known for being in touch with popular culture, must have taken the view that Andy Gray was indeed yesterday's man; this quite excellent book, had been marked down (in a charity shop, mind) to the very reasonable price of only 20p. For such a small sum, I just had to have it - I scooped it up out of the basket. We're off on holiday on 9th February and it will be a right riveting read by the poolside.
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Now here is the 'funny' bit (or at least I think so).

I get to the counter and give the lady the book with my 20p.  She peruses the book rather sniffily and then looks away avoiding any eye contact. In the silence that intervenes, I stutter somewhat nervously, "I'm not a sexist, you know" hoping to lighten up the apparent pain of the transaction. She just stares back at me without showing any emotion. "Well, I suppose you'll be needing a bag for that", she retorts. She puts the book rather gingerly in a brown paper bag and hands it to me with a look of disgust.  For goodness sake, it was as if I was buying a top shelf title such as my favourite 'Tractor Weekly'.  I retreated out of the shop feeling somewhat guilty and went across the road into Waitrose.

Saturday 5 February 2011

Sally Bercow - has she lost the plot?

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Call me old fashioned, but is the good office of the The Speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow being a tad sullied and tarnished by the recent antics of his wife Sally?  Can someone explain why she posed in a flannelette sheet in the ‘ES’ magazine of the London freebie the Evening Standard?  And why she got into a quite detailed discussion about her sex life – fortunately with her husband, the Speaker John? 
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She has I gather given up the demon drink – formerly a reported habit of two bottles a day weekdays – even more at the weekend. But perhaps, once an addict, always an addict – she seems now to be addicted to self-publicity.

John, you need to put her on a tight leash from now on - and don't let her leave the house without adult supervision.

I remember the days when The Speaker of the House of Commons was a well respected position.  However, I would accept that the position is not perhaps what it once was.  I think the rot started with the corpulent, ubber-greedy, and thieving Michael Martin, he of the MP’s expenses scandal.  Some people get the jail fiddling their expenses, while the ring-leader gets ennobled becoming The Lord Martin of Springburn - wheres the justice?  And this a man that once used to post his underwear back to Glasgow for his wife to wash them using the parliamentary privilege of free post.  I do hope the postie wore gloves!

Bring back Betty Boothroyd!