Thursday 10 March 2011

What do the bookies know that we don't


I am always amazed that the bookies seem to have almost mystical powers in determining odds and who is favourite to win for example in the early days of a TV talent show. They really should get into running governments.

An example of foresight that springs to mind is the girl that won the BBC's 'Over the Rainbow' talent show. There were twenty unknown contestants, and yet Danielle Hope was the bookies favourite from the very beginning. From memory, she almost got eliminated twice in sudden death sing-offs. But despite the apparent wavering, the bookies maintained the faith in her as their favourite. She went on to win in the end and is now starring in The Lord Jaba's west end show.

Just how do bookies do it? Do they know something that we ordinary punters don't?

That leads me to the Rt hon William Hague MP the Foreign Secretary (or Tory Boy as he was formerly known). About 3 weeks ago, and before the Libya situation had fully developed, I noted that the bookies had shortened the odds (from 12/1 to 8/1) of him being the next minister to resign from the Government. At that time Vince Cable was the favourite at 7/2. Remember this was long before the recent keystone cops episode outside Benghazi. I questioned at that time what do the bookies know, what us mere members of the public don't know, which would shorten the odds. The sharing the hotel room with his special advisor was ages before and 8/1 seemed attractive odds - I really wished I had of got on then.
Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Now this morning when I turn to my Turf Accounting daily I see the odds have shrunk to - wait for it - 3/1! I had tears in my muesli. I squandered the 8/1 opportunity. The bookies had seen it coming long before some Whitehall mandarin had concocted the crazy caper in Benghazi, which Hague in a moment of apparent lunacy, had signed off - like something from a script from 'The Thick Of It".

There was also a piece in the Guardian by Nicholas Watt that said there was talk within the Tory ranks that “William had lost his mojo“.

He continued: “There is this feeling that William is not firing on all cylinders, that he is on half power,” one Tory said. Many Conservatives believe Hague has never fully recovered from his embarrassment in September when he admitted having shared a hotel room with his former special adviser, Christopher Myers.“

My own thing with Hague was of his lies in relation to his connections with Lord Ashcroft. How he got away with that I just do not know. After Coulson it further shows David Cameron's extreme lack of judgment when giving people top positions.

Surely Cameron must have viewed this: