The Kings Speech (but a bit too late)

King Hamad bin Issa Al-Khalifa

Currently we are in Dubai but have to report on the recent trouble in Bahrain in recent days. Or the Kingdom of Bahrain to give it its proper title since 2002 the Emir HH Hamad bin Issa Al-Khalifa succeeded to power and made himself a King. Two people have been killed by the police in demonstrations on Monday and Tuesday of this week. King Hamad took to the TV to address the population to personally apologise for the killings. But I fear it was a Kings speech, a bit too late, especially for the two young men who were shot to death by the police - some 'crowd control'.

The origins of the troubles predate the popular uprising in Egypt and mainly relate to the demographics of the island kingdom. In particular the split of Sunni and Shia sects of Islam in Bahrain. If you think 'catholic' and 'protestant' it may help to understand the divisions - same religion but with prejudices and differing allegiances on both sides. These sectarian troubles go back over 30 years, or so, (1979 and the Iranian revolution).

The country is ruled by King Hamad bin Issa Al-Khalifa and the King appointed government is largely Sunni dominated whereas the Shia represent two thirds of the Bahraini population.

Bahrain is a small country, similar in numbers to those that reside in greater Glasgow area, and has a total population of about 1.2m. Of this 1.2m about 60% are guest migrant workers, so the local Bahraini population is about 570,000 or thereabouts - again some similarities to Glasgow, as this is roughly the same amount of people within the Glasgow City council area. I am omitting that by coincidence Glasgow also has its own sectarian issues – catholic & protestants. Point to note again that two thirds of this 570,000 are Shia which tend to have historic and religious ties with Iran - in Bahrain they have always been under represented and accordingly felt disenfranchised.

When the British gave Bahrain its independence over 40 years ago the Al-Khalifa dynasty ruled the country. There has always been the 'Shia' issue. When King Hamad came to power his government was seen to start a process to grant citizenship to migrant workers – some say providing they kicked with the correct foot (ie. were not Shia) – in order to try to re-balance the Sunni/Shia demographics. This and press freedom together with the reported 450 political prisoners is at the heart of the matter.

Bahrain is not a rich country, it has little if any oil, and relies on banking and other commercial activities. But it has a strategic importance. The US 5th fleet has a permanent base there; and just across the causeway, which joins the country to the despotic regime of Saudi Arabia, lies the eastern oilfields of Saudi.

I have a feeling this may get worse before it gets better. Let us see if Bernie Ecclestone will permit the Bahrain Grand Prix to go on amid the growing security concerns. It is planned for March 13^th and this will be a tester for the regime in more ways than one.